Over the past few months, analysts have been questioning if Bitcoin (BTC) really is in a bull market. Just two weeks ago, the leading cryptocurrency was down nearly 50% from its year-to-date peak of $14,000 — something that many took as a signal that Bitcoin was back in a bear market phase.
But, a key technical indicator has shown that the crypto market remains in a bullish phase. The thing is, another drop in the BTC price, even to $8,000, could make that indicator flip bearish for the first time since March 2018 — just shy of the $20,000 top of the last bull run.
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Bitcoin Still in Long-Term Bull Market, Indicator Suggests
If you’ve followed cryptocurrency trading at all, you’ve likely seen the terms “golden cross” and “death/bear cross” incessantly mentioned on Twitter and TradingView. For some reference, golden and death crosses in technical analysis refer to when moving averages (MAs) cross each other to signal a trend; golden crosses see short-term MAs crossing above long-term MAs, and death crosses the other way around.
According to a recent analysis by Byzantine General, a popular trader on Twitter, a bear cross of the 50-day exponential moving average and the 200-day exponential moving average was just averted. This implies that Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull trend, as golden and death crosses of these two moving averages have long been indicative of macro trends.
The 50 & 200 EMAs on the 1D timeframe are a good indication of bull & bear market.
They’re much more clear than the regular DMAs.
We still haven’t had a bear cross.
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) November 10, 2019
This isn’t the only indicator implying such. Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.
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To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.
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